Sexually transmitted infections such as chlamydia, gonorrhea, herpes, and syphilis impose a tremendous health and economic burden worldwide. In the U.S. alone, annual estimates of the costs of new chlamydia and gonorrhea infections exceed $3 billion, and genital herpes affects more than 1 in 5 Americans over the age of 12, with one million new cases each year. Fellows and students of faculty in the Center for Health Decision Science have developed the following models:
-
a disease simulation model of syphilis to assess the cost-effectiveness of rapid prenatal screening in sub-Saharan Africa (Dr. Goldie and doctoral student Rydzak).
-
a dynamic model of herpes simplex II that was used to evaluate interventions targeting transmission dynamics and to assess the effectiveness of herpes vaccination incorporating heterogeneity in vaccine response by gender (Drs. David Fisman and Goldie).
-
a Monte Carlo model of the natural history of herpes simplex in men and women used to assess a range of behavioral and screening interventions (Drs. David Fisman and Goldie).
-
a simulation model of chlamydia that allows for exploration of persistence and recurrence and can evaluate screening and treatment in adolescent females (Drs. Hu and Goldie).
-
a natural history model of gonorrhea used to assess the cost-effectiveness of novel screening strategies in urban emergency rooms (Drs. Julia Aledort, Weinstein and Goldie).
-
a model of pelvic inflammatory disease (PID) used to improve future cost-effectiveness analyses on STD screening programs by refining estimates of the lifetime cost of PID and its major complications (Drs. Goldie and Yeh).
Results of these studies are often used to inform new national guidelines. For example, results from our chlamydia modeling efforts have been used in the policy debates calling for more frequent screening in high-risk women.
Research conducted by the Center for Health Decision Science in the areas of Sexually Transmitted Infections has been sponsored by the National Institute of Mental Health, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality.